Subida desenfreada do preço do petróleo e dos bens alimentares

[b]Analyst: $200 oil could happen this year[/b]

Murti: ‘Lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent’

updated 10:08 a.m. ET May 6, 2008

NEW YORK - A Goldman Sachs analyst on Tuesday predicted that oil prices could reach $150 to $200 a barrel over the next 6 months to two years, but said that how far prices could climb still “remains a major uncertainty.”

“We believe the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as the lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent,” analyst Arjun N. Murti wrote in a client note.

Oil for June delivery hit a record $120.93 a barrel Tuesday in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

He forecasts that prices will still continue to gradually increase, but for a longer period that previously predicted.

He raised his 2008 prediction for benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot prices to $108 per barrel from $96, and his 2009 estimate to $110 from $105. He lifted his prediction for 2010 and 2011 to $120 from $110.

But he also said it was possible that oil could hit $125 this year and $200 in 2009 before coming down to $150 in 2010.

Murti said he remains bullish on most facets of the U.S. energy market, especially integrated oil companies, explorers and producers, and pipeline operators.

He lowered his view on oil refiners to “Neutral” from “Buy,” but said investors should still consider Valero Energy Corp. and Frontier Oil Corp. at their current values. He maintained a “Neutral” rating on oil drillers, but said investors should consider the stocks if they pull back.

He also named oil company ConocoPhillips, oilfield services provider Halliburton Co. and pipeline operator El Paso Corp. among his top picks.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24482312/

Sérá que a produção de petróleo já chegou ao famoso patamar do pico do petróleo ?

Os Russos (2o productor mundial) , ja anunciaram que este ano atingiram o pico e que nao esperam chegar a esse valor novamente no futuro, isto foi anunciado e deu origem a um dos ultimos aumentos.

Este é um assunto muito sério. Na segunda-feira o programa dos “Prós e Contras” falava sobre o aumento do preço dos cereais. Depois de ouvir alguns experts na matéria, fiquei esclarecido que a culpa, além da elevada quota parte de responsabilidade da produção de biocombustíveis, é das políticas seguidas pela UE e por Portugal com a redução das quotas de produção. Agora, para corrigir a merda feita vai demorar muito tempo. Queriam uma Europa sem agricultores, mas esqueceram-se que são eles que fazem chegar às suas casas a comidinha.

Realmente a actual estupidez política não têm limites!

E nao so, comecou tambem uma certa corrida ao acambarcamento, vide o caso do arroz na Asia, e ate o caso mais peculiar e estranho do leite na Nova Zelandia.

Recebi agora este mail:

URGENTE 1 2 3 JUNHO DIAS SEM ABASTECIMENTO NA GALP BP REPSOL]
Não custa tentar…

Assunto:* FW: URGENTE_1_2_3_JUNHO_DIAS SEM ABASTECIMENTO NA GALP_BP_REPSOL

Vamos fazer a diferença!

Isto tem que começar por algum lado!

Vamos passar a palavra e não ser indiferentes, temos que fazer com que
as coisas mudem!

A subida vertiginosa do preços dos combustíveis tem que parar e temos
que fazer com que baixem!

Para tal vamos combinar três dias nacionais seguidos de NÃO
ABASTECIMENTO NA BP, GALP, REPSOL!

Esses dias serão o 1 -2 -3 de Junho que vem!

VAMOS FAZER A DIFERENÇA!

Nesses dias abasteçam em outros postos de combustíveis tais como a
Esso, Total, Continente (antigo Carrefour), Intermarché, Jumbo e
Eleclerc!

Juntos teremos força para baixar os lucros destes gigantes!

Agora é só passar a palavra com urgência!

Estou farto de ser levado na hora de pagar!

CHEGA!

SEJAMOS UNIDOS PORTUGUESES E TODOS OS QUE TENTAM SOBREVIVER EM PORTUGAL!

NÃO ESQUEÇAM 1 - 2 - 3 de JUNHO que vem Não Abasteçam na BP, GALP e REPSOL!

/FORÇA/****/_ PORTUGAL!_/

e que tal subir brutalmente o imposto sobre os combustiveis?..

quais seriam as consequencias?..

é uma teoria que eu tenho… já a apresentei a mais pessoas mas a unica resposta que me dao é: “isso seria suicidio politico”

a subida do imposto sobre os produtos petroliferos daria um sinal claro a toda a sociedade: reduzam o consumo, procurem alternativas…

com a receita do aumento do imposto apoiaria-se os sectores mais urgentes (transportes publicos) e investia-se em alternativas (energias renovaveis)…

ultrapassava-se a especulação… ou seja, a redução de consumo devido ao imposto obrigava a terem de ser as empresas petroliferas a baixar o preço…

sobre os armadores de pesca que agora vao fazer greve:

nao tenho pena nenhuma… os armadores sao um grupo com alguma força, há decadas que se sabe que iria acontecer isto com os produtos petroliferos e nunca vi os armadores a preocuparem-se em procurar alternativas… ainda ha pouco tempo vi um gajo na televisao que fez um barco movido a energia solar o que só mostra que pode haver alternativas (se houver aqui alguem que tenha conhecimentos para isso explique-me uma coisa: é possivel fazer um barco que se mova com a energia das ondas?..)

E com energia eólica, tipo barcos à vela, hein?!
:mrgreen:

Mas realmente se calhar os barcos só precisam do motor para fazerem manobras nos portos. Em alto mar, desde que não houvesse tempestade, poderiam usar as velas.

Por Kite:

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUyetrs3MQ0&eurl=http://lugardoconhecimento.wordpress.com/2008/03/24/barco-movido-por-asa-de-parapente/[/youtube]

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12ZsNtrlhz4&feature=related[/youtube]

[b]Secret report: biofuel caused food crisis[/b]

Internal World Bank study delivers blow to plant energy drive

Aditya Chakrabortty
The Guardian, Friday July 4, 2008
Article history

Biofuels have forced global food prices up by 75% - far more than previously estimated - according to a confidential World Bank report obtained by the Guardian.

The damning unpublished assessment is based on the most detailed analysis of the crisis so far, carried out by an internationally-respected economist at global financial body.

The figure emphatically contradicts the US government’s claims that plant-derived fuels contribute less than 3% to food-price rises. It will add to pressure on governments in Washington and across Europe, which have turned to plant-derived fuels to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and reduce their dependence on imported oil.

Senior development sources believe the report, completed in April, has not been published to avoid embarrassing President George Bush.

“It would put the World Bank in a political hot-spot with the White House,” said one yesterday.

The news comes at a critical point in the world’s negotiations on biofuels policy. Leaders of the G8 industrialised countries meet next week in Hokkaido, Japan, where they will discuss the food crisis and come under intense lobbying from campaigners calling for a moratorium on the use of plant-derived fuels.

It will also put pressure on the British government, which is due to release its own report on the impact of biofuels, the Gallagher Report. The Guardian has previously reported that the British study will state that plant fuels have played a “significant” part in pushing up food prices to record levels. Although it was expected last week, the report has still not been released.

“Political leaders seem intent on suppressing and ignoring the strong evidence that biofuels are a major factor in recent food price rises,” said Robert Bailey, policy adviser at Oxfam. “It is imperative that we have the full picture. While politicians concentrate on keeping industry lobbies happy, people in poor countries cannot afford enough to eat.”

Rising food prices have pushed 100m people worldwide below the poverty line, estimates the World Bank, and have sparked riots from Bangladesh to Egypt. Government ministers here have described higher food and fuel prices as “the first real economic crisis of globalisation”.

President Bush has linked higher food prices to higher demand from India and China, but the leaked World Bank study disputes that: “Rapid income growth in developing countries has not led to large increases in global grain consumption and was not a major factor responsible for the large price increases.”

Even successive droughts in Australia, calculates the report, have had a marginal impact. Instead, it argues that the EU and US drive for biofuels has had by far the biggest impact on food supply and prices.

Since April, all petrol and diesel in Britain has had to include 2.5% from biofuels. The EU has been considering raising that target to 10% by 2020, but is faced with mounting evidence that that will only push food prices higher.

“Without the increase in biofuels, global wheat and maize stocks would not have declined appreciably and price increases due to other factors would have been moderate,” says the report. The basket of food prices examined in the study rose by 140% between 2002 and this February. The report estimates that higher energy and fertiliser prices accounted for an increase of only 15%, while biofuels have been responsible for a 75% jump over that period.

It argues that production of biofuels has distorted food markets in three main ways. First, it has diverted grain away from food for fuel, with over a third of US corn now used to produce ethanol and about half of vegetable oils in the EU going towards the production of biodiesel. Second, farmers have been encouraged to set land aside for biofuel production. Third, it has sparked financial speculation in grains, driving prices up higher.

Other reviews of the food crisis looked at it over a much longer period, or have not linked these three factors, and so arrived at smaller estimates of the impact from biofuels. But the report author, Don Mitchell, is a senior economist at the Bank and has done a detailed, month-by-month analysis of the surge in food prices, which allows much closer examination of the link between biofuels and food supply.

The report points out biofuels derived from sugarcane, which Brazil specializes in, have not had such a dramatic impact.

Supporters of biofuels argue that they are a greener alternative to relying on oil and other fossil fuels, but even that claim has been disputed by some experts, who argue that it does not apply to US production of ethanol from plants.

“It is clear that some biofuels have huge impacts on food prices,” said Dr David King, the government’s former chief scientific adviser, last night. “All we are doing by supporting these is subsidising higher food prices, while doing nothing to tackle climate change.”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/03/biofuels.renewableenergy